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PDP REMAINS THE PARTY TO BEAT: PDP 2007 CANDIDATE
WATCH OUT FOR DONALD DUKE, IBB, MIKE AKHIGBE, ABDULAHI ADAMU, PETER ODILI
As the quest for the leader of the most populous African nation heating up; multiple parties are seeking the presidency in 2007, one fact is remaining clear; the organized machinery of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is likely to remain largely intact and infact will remain superior to any other organized party or political groups coming together for the 2007 political exercise. The question remains who will PDP select, come December as the party bearer, going into the 2007 polls. With more than 30 political parties seeking the office of the president, PDP stands a shoulder above all others as of today. The main opposition party still remains All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) which is largely popular in the Northern states, with loyalist still enticed by religious and cultural sentiments in the predominately Muslim northern states. Efforts to nationalize the party has not been very successful, thou! gh 2007 could be a test of such efforts by ANPP. Other parties include the recently formed African Democratic Congress, Alliance for Democracy AD, Labour party and a host of other registered parties.
On the PDP landscape, a few facts are emerging into light. It is critical to determine who the present leader President Olusegun Obasanjo would throw his support behind as it is virtually clear that the differences between him and the Vice president have not been resolved. The current president Olusegun Obasanjo have served two four year term and is prohibited by the constitution from seeking a third term. A few names have begun to emerge from reliable sources available to Transatlantic Times. Without any particular order, lets consider the candidates emerging based on the public filing of the PDP Presidential nomination application, as classified in these groups.
A. PRESENT SERVING GOVERNORS SEEKING PDP NOMINATION:
1. DONALD DUKE - GOVERNOR CROSS RIVER STATE
2. ABDULAHI ADAMU - NASARAWA STATE
3. SAM EGWU - EBONYI STATE
4. PETER ODILI - RIVER STATE
5. ACHIKE UDENWA - IMO STATE
6. VICTOR ATTAH - AKWA IBOM STATE
7. ALHAJI AHMED MAKARFI - KADUNA STATE
B. PREVIOUS NATIONAL MILITARY LEADERS SEEKING PDP NOMINATION:
1. IBRAHIM BADAMOSI BABANGIDA - GENERAL, (National Leader 1985-1993)
2. MICHAEL AKHAI AKHIGBE - CHIEF OF GENERAL STAFF, (Vice National Leader 1998-1999)
C. OTHER EX-MILITARY LEADERS
1. EBITU UKIWE
2. MOHAMMED BARBA MARUWA
3. MAMMAN KOTAGORA
D. OTHER CIVILIAN LEADERS
1. JERRY GANA
2. SARAH JUBRIL
3. ANDRAWUS SAWA
E. CANDIDATES YET TO PICK APPLICATIONS.
1. ATIKU ABUBAKAR
2. ORJI UZOR KALU
3. CHIMAROKE NNAMANI
4. ALHAJI GASAU
As of the date of putting this material together, these were the confirmed candidates who have picked up the five million naira form to contest the PDP nomination. With certain factors known and others emerging, the stage are becoming clearer to navigate in the PDP party quest for 2007. The first group of serving governors have a major litmus test, which is EFCC the acronym for Economic Financial Crimes Commission, the law enforcement arm set up by the administration of Olusegun Obasanjo. So far based on public statements made by the head of that organization, Nuru Ribadu, the coast seems very cloudy for the list of governor aspirants for the top job. This group however have an advantage in their ability to raise funds with their position of incumbency, especially in a society where the main stumbling block to economic development is corruption, and the mass population remain impoverished even when billions of dollars are earned annually in oil! sales profits, it is no milestone to imagine how all sorts of funding would be available for a seating governor. It will be ironically difficult for PDP the ruling party with the present administration pushing the very popular anticorruption reform agenda, to turn around and nominate candidates under open investigation by the EFCC. That scenerio will be a difficult blow to the intergrity of the present administration and it could spell much trouble for the ruling Peoples Democratic Party itself, as the PDP nominee would have to run against other party candidates
The previous leaders category have a major appeal, name recognition, experience, acceptability in many circles, compromise candidate, acceptance in the international communities with the multinationals, financial institutions who control debt management, foreign investors seeking security for their investments, and most of all stability and continuation of policies from the present administration. However, this group have their own Achilles heel. In a recent statement by the EFCC, the chairman, warned that Nigerians should reject corrupt leaders who aspire to gain access to government. As noted earlier, the strongest point in favor of this group is the sense of confidence the incumbent government would feel about their continuation of the effective policies, already established. From most indication, this category still have the advantage, with name recognition, a key in these races, if Nigeria is going to emerge successful in the all important test of s! ustaining democracy, political stability is crucial in these suspected turbulent months ahead. The experience and sobriety of an acceptable choice or compromise figure acceptable to the north, south west, south east and south south regions is critical. The events unfolding in the next few days, will shield more light on this field.
The next category of ex-military leaders have the benefit of their military services and previous appointments to emphasize their name recognition, however the EFCC factor is still a problem in this group. Though they have the advantage of military experience, which can keep the military in the barracks, which in itself could be very appealing in the young democracy that is following multiple years of military rule since the country got its independence in 1960 from Great Britain, it may not be sufficient to push them over concerns of lack of experience and name recognition.
The category of civilian leaders are much different though similar with the last group, name recognition could be a problem. But even more than that, the acceptability factor could be more problematic. To break out from this group, the public perception and charismatic ideas of the leader should have been hitting the airwaves already. The populace have to be desirous of such leader or the incumbent ruling party would have to be singing the praises of such leader as the one to carry the mantle forward. In absence of that type of gains at this time, it is difficult but not impossible to see how any one in this category can emerge victorious in December.
The category most difficult to predict and potentially a trojan horse is the list of candidates that have not yet requested the application, headed by the embattled incumbent vice president Atiku Abubakar. Events in the next few weeks and even days may determine the strategies and directions the players in this group would take toward the goals of Aso rock 2007.
Transatlantic Times will keep you updated on all the inside analysis as they are coming out. Stay with us and for more visit us at www.transatlantictimes.com African Edition.
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